Squad rotation shapes Group D’s final round, but Australia and Paraguay still have a clear prize at stake: second place and a route into the knockout stages. The USA have already secured top spot, while Turkey are out. That leaves the group’s two remaining fixtures with sharply different stakes: one will decide who finishes second, while the other gives an eliminated side a chance to affect the final picture.
Qualification stakes and kick-off
Australia and Paraguay are level on three points. Australia’s better goal difference means a draw would secure second place; the same result could also send Paraguay through as one of the best third-placed teams. The result therefore offers both sides a possible route onward, though Australia can treat a draw as sufficient for second while Paraguay have more reason to push for a win.
That shared incentive brings an unusual edge to their meeting. A cautious start could suit Australia, but Paraguay can’t rely on the draw alone to secure second place. The match’s practical stakes are clear even without knowing how either team will approach it.
The USA play Turkey in the other fixture, with Turkey left to play for pride. The USA have already secured top spot, so the match won’t change who leads the group; it can, however, affect how the final standings look below them. Both matches start at 03:00 BST, putting the attention on simultaneous results as the group reaches its final round.
Rotation reshapes the fantasy picture
Mauricio Pochettino has made sweeping changes to the USA side. Weston McKennie ($6.1m) and Ricardo Pepi ($5.9m) are the only players to retain their places. That’s a sharp break from continuity at a stage when the USA have already secured first place, and it makes previous selections a weaker guide to who’ll feature in this match.
Turkey have also altered their line-up significantly: Arda Güler ($7.0m) is one of only four players to keep his place after the defeat to Paraguay. Paraguay have made three changes, including a forced switch: Miguel Almirón is suspended after his red card. Australia have made seven changes from their previous match. The scale differs across the teams, but the shared story is that managers have to reassess expected minutes and roles rather than simply carry forward assumptions from the last round.
For fantasy managers, the most notable absences are Sergiño Dest ($4.3m) and Alexander Freeman ($4.0m). They’re the only players from these four teams owned by more than five per cent of managers, and neither starts. That makes the team news especially relevant for anyone who backed either defender: ownership gives their absence wider consequences for fantasy planning, even though it doesn’t tell us how the replacements will perform.
This is more significant than it looks. A player’s inclusion in a previous starting side can create confidence that isn’t supported by the confirmed line-up. If you’re working in fantasy, check the actual teams before treating past minutes as a reliable forecast (and this is the part most people overlook). The line-ups confirm who starts; they don’t guarantee how long anyone will play.
Confirmed line-ups
Paraguay XI: Orlando Gill, Juan José Cáceres, Gustavo Velázquez, Gustavo Gómez, Omar Alderete, Alexandro Maidana, Andrés Cubas, Diego Gómez, Matías Galarza Fonda, Gabriel Ávalos, Julio Enciso.
Subs: G. Fernandez, G. Olveira, F. Balbuena, J. Alonso, R. Sosa, A. Sanabria, P. Mauricio, J. Canale, D. Bobadilla, A. Romero, A. Arce, B. Ojeda, G. Caballero, I. Pitta.
Australia XI: Patrick Beach, Lucas Herrington, Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar, Jordan Bos, Aziz Behich, Connor Metcalfe, Aiden O’Neill, Jackson Irvine, Nestory Irankunda, Cristian Volpato.
Subs: M. Ryan, P. Izzo, M. Degenek, J. Geria, M. Toure, A. Hrustic, A. Mabil, C. Devlin, K. Trewin, C. Burgess, N. Velupillay, P. Okon-Engstler, T. Yengi.
Turkey XI: Uğurcan Çakır, Zeki Çelik, Ozan Kabak, Abdülkerim Bardakcı, Eren Elmalı, Salih Özcan, Orkun Kökçü, Oğuz Aydın, Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, Barış Alper Yılmaz.
Subs: M. Gunok, A. Bayindir, M. Demiral, C. Soyuncu, K. Akturkoglu, D. Gul, H. Calhanoglu, I. Yuksek, I. Kahveci, M. Muldur, Y. Akgun, F. Kadioglu, K. Ayhan, S. Akaydin, C. Uzun.
USA XI: Matt Turner, Joe Scally, Auston Trusty, Miles Robinson, Mark McKenzie, Sebastian Berhalter, Weston McKennie, Brenden Aaronson, Giovanni Reyna, Timothy Weah, Ricardo Pepi.
Subs: M. Freese, C. Brady, S. Dest, C. Richards, T. Adams, A. Robinson, C. Pulisic, T. Ream, A. Freeman, M. Tillman, M. Arfsten, H. Wright, F. Balogun, A. Zendejas.
What the final round means
The group’s final picture depends on the Australia–Paraguay result and on how the best third-placed teams are assessed. Australia’s goal-difference advantage gives them a straightforward path to second: avoid defeat. Paraguay have a more complicated calculation, since a draw may still be enough to advance but won’t give them second place.
For readers following the matches, the simultaneous kick-off keeps those outcomes connected. The USA–Turkey result won’t dislodge the USA from first, but the confirmed line-ups show how much rotation can reshape expectations even when the group leader has already secured its position. And yet, the central test remains simple: Australia and Paraguay need to turn their remaining opportunity into a result.
One final complication for fantasy selections: the confirmed teams provide certainty about who starts, not about the match’s tactical shape or the eventual returns. Squad changes sharpen the uncertainty. The team sheets are the starting point.