Group F’s final round puts three teams in contention for two places in the round of 32. The Netherlands and Japan lead on four points, with Sweden one point back; Tunisia have been eliminated. Japan meet Sweden and Tunisia face the Netherlands, with both matches starting at 00:00 BST.
The arithmetic leaves little room for Sweden to manage the game cautiously: a point separates them from the two leaders, and their meeting with Japan directly pits a contender against a team already on four points. The Netherlands, by contrast, start level with Japan and face a Tunisia side with no place in the next round to chase. That difference shapes the pressure around the fixtures, though it doesn't settle what either match will look like once play begins.
Both games start at the same time, so the group’s final positions will be decided in parallel. A result in one match won't give the other side a chance to respond after seeing the final score. For supporters tracking qualification, the relevant question is therefore not simply who wins, but how each team handles a game in which the standings can shift while the other match is still under way.
Netherlands and Tunisia line-ups
Ronald Koeman has made one change to the Netherlands side that beat Sweden 5-1: Nathan Ake replaces Micky van de Ven. Van de Ven and Crysencio Summerville are both among the substitutes and carry yellow cards, which may have factored into the selection. Brian Brobbey starts up front.
After a win by that margin, changing only one starter suggests Koeman has chosen continuity in the Netherlands’ starting side. Ake's inclusion is the clear alteration, while leaving Van de Ven among the substitutes gives the coach another option during the match. The yellow cards add a possible consideration, but the available information doesn't establish that they drove the decision; the selection could reflect tactical or physical factors too.
Brobbey's start gives the Netherlands a named centre-forward from the opening whistle, with Malen and Gakpo also in the XI. How those players divide their roles will matter more than the names alone: a list of starters can't show how high they press, where they receive the ball or how often they find one another. Still, the selection gives Koeman several attacking options in the starting group after the side's emphatic result against Sweden.
Tunisia have made four changes. Rani Khedira, Amine Ben Hamida, Ismael Gharbi and Hazem Mastouri come in for Dylan Bronn, Omar Rekik, Elias Saad and Sebastian Tounekti.
Four changes make Tunisia's response one of the more notable lineup decisions of the round. A team that's been eliminated can use a final group match to assess different combinations, but the list alone doesn't reveal the coach's reasoning. The incoming players will have to establish their roles quickly, particularly against a Netherlands side carrying the confidence of a 5-1 win. Tunisia can still affect the group’s final contest, even if the result can't restore their own qualification hopes.
Tunisia XI: Dahmen, Valery, Khedira, Talbi, B Hamida, Abdi, Skhiri, Hannibal, Gharbi, Mastouri, Slimane
Netherlands XI: Verbruggen, Dumfries, van Hecke, van Dijk, Ake, Gravenberch, de Jong, Reijnders, Malen, Gakpo, Brobbey
Japan and Sweden reshape their sides
Japan have made three changes after their convincing win over Tunisia. Ayumu Seko, Yukinari Sugawara and Daizen Maeda start in place of Takehiro Tomiyasu, Kaishu Sano and Junya Ito. Ritsu Doan is expected to fill one of the No 10 roles, with Sugawara at right wing-back.
Japan's changes touch more than one area of the team: Seko comes into the defence, Sugawara is expected to operate at right wing-back, and Maeda takes a starting place in attack. That distribution could give Japan different options on the flank and in the forward line, though the starting XI doesn't by itself show whether the team will press aggressively or build patiently. With a place in the round of 32 at stake, the practical test is whether the new combination can keep Japan's shape while still creating chances.
Doan's expected position as one of the No 10s offers another clue to the intended setup, but it remains an expectation rather than a confirmed description of every attacking movement. If you're following the tactical matchup, watch how his role connects the midfield to Maeda and Ueda. Small shifts in where those players receive the ball can change how much pressure Sweden faces and how much room Japan have to advance.
Sweden coach Graham Potter has also made three alterations following the defeat to the Netherlands. Jacob Widell Zetterstrom, Elliot Stroud and Anthony Elanga start; Kristoffer Nordfeldt, Jesper Karlstrom and Benjamin Nygren drop to the bench.
Sweden's changes include a new goalkeeper, as well as alterations involving Stroud and Elanga. That's a meaningful adjustment in a match where the team needs a result to improve its position, but it doesn't tell us whether Potter intends a broader change in approach. The defeat to the Netherlands is the immediate backdrop; Japan's lineup and the live state of the other match will shape the pressure once the games begin.
And this is the part most people overlook: a lineup announcement is a plan, not a guarantee of how the match will unfold. A substitute can become central after an early change, and a nominal position can shift as the game develops. For Sweden, the challenge is to make its alterations work under the pressure of a must-answer final round. For Japan, the task is to turn a three-player reshuffle into a coherent performance.
Japan XI: Suzuki, Seko, Itakura, H Ito, Sugawara, Kamada, Tanaka, Nakamura, Doan, Maeda, Ueda
Sweden XI: Zetterstrom, Lagerbielke, Hien, Lindelof, Bernhardsson, Stroud, Ayari, Gudmundsson, Elanga, Gyokeres, Isak
What the final round will decide
The group comes down to two simultaneous matches and a narrow gap between Sweden and the leaders. Japan's meeting with Sweden is the direct contest between the three teams still seeking qualification, while the Netherlands have the same points as Japan and face the eliminated side. That setup gives the Dutch a different kind of test: they must turn their status as group leaders into a result against an opponent with less at stake in the standings.
The numbers here are tight enough that a comfortable-looking lead before kickoff can offer little reassurance. Sweden are only one point behind, and the standings alone don't specify how the final positions will be settled if teams finish level. What this means for you as a viewer is simple: track both scores, and avoid treating either fixture as self-contained. A goal in either match could change the context of the other.
Japan and the Netherlands have the clearest starting positions, but neither has finished the job. Sweden still have a route to the next round, while Tunisia's role is now to close their campaign. A demanding night for the contenders.
Here's the thing: the team sheets offer useful clues, but they can't answer the central question in advance. Japan and Sweden have both altered their starting sides, and the Netherlands have made a single change after a heavy win. Whether those decisions prove decisive depends on execution, not the announcement itself. The final round is set up to reward the teams that stay composed while the standings remain live.